Official QOS prediction thread

[Kristatos]

Just for fun, predict the box office for QOS. The closest to the actual result wins...I dunno, a round of applause from Mr. Smiley here

My prediction:

US opening weekend - $40 million
US Total gross - $170 million
UK total gross - $105 million*
Worldwide gross - $650 million

* = I gave the figure in US dollars because that's how it will be presented on Box Office Mojo, which is where I get my box office information from.

[stockslivevan]

Pretty much have the same predictions as yours.

[bjmdds]

The opening for CR was $40.3 million in the USA; it had legs and was able to surpass DAD. Eon will be quite upset with such a repeated opening, for this time, there could be a precipitous drop week two and on, especially with Potter waiting in the wings two weeks later. Eon would love the opening TBU had in the USA, but, that just 'ain't a gonna happen'.

[stockslivevan]

The opening for CR was $40.3 million in the USA; it had legs and was able to surpass DAD. Eon will be quite upset with such a repeated opening, for this time, there could be a precipitous drop week two and on, especially with Potter waiting in the wings two weeks later.

DAD did fine going head to head with Harry Potter, should it be any different for QOS? Ever since GoldenEye the grosses have been nowhere but up. Each new film

Eon would love the opening TBU had in the USA, but, that just 'ain't a gonna happen'.

Of course it won't, QOS isn't a summer release and it's not even opening on a holiday weekend. If it managed to make 70 million in one weekend that would be the most unexpected thing to happen in a time like that, even for a Bond film. Harry Potter and The Lord of the Rings are the only franchises to make such a feat during fall releases.

[English Agent]

Just for fun, predict the box office for QOS. The closest to the actual result wins...I dunno, a round of applause from Mr. Smiley here

My prediction:

US opening weekend - $40 million
US Total gross - $170 million
UK total gross - $105 million*
Worldwide gross - $650 million

* = I gave the figure in US dollars because that's how it will be presented on Box Office Mojo, which is where I get my box office information from.

Kris................well done

I follow the business side of films..................and i think your predictions for QOS are very realistic.

I do think though that the US opening gross will be higher, say between $45-55 mil

AB

[English Agent]

The opening for CR was $40.3 million in the USA; it had legs and was able to surpass DAD. Eon will be quite upset with such a repeated opening, for this time, there could be a precipitous drop week two and on, especially with Potter waiting in the wings two weeks later. Eon would love the opening TBU had in the USA, but, that just 'ain't a gonna happen'.

Come on 'BJ'................the release dates for QOS are very clever thinking on EON's part.

Rather in the past when a Bond film has opened a week after an HP film,
they are releasing it earlier this time.............this will give QOS at least 2 weeks worldwide exposure to huge boxoffice takings before any other film is released to distract from the publics awareness to the Bond film!!

AB

[Kristatos]

Kris................well done

I follow the business side of films..................and i think your predictions for QOS are very realistic.

I do think though that the US opening gross will be higher, say between $45-55 mil

I just took the adjusted figures for CR and made the US gross slightly lower and the British and worlwide grosses slightly higher. The UK was by far CR's strongest market, whereas it slightly underperformed in the US compared to DAD. I just have a feeling that the trend may continue and QOS may do less business than CR in the States.

[English Agent]

Kris...................i'am basing my prediction that CR's initially slightly dissapointing opening was based on the fact that there was some reticence of the public to seeing the film because of the inital controversy
of Craigs signing to the Bond role.

It was interesting to see that once CR had passed its opening weekend it started to outgross DAD in the US.

With QOS being released sometime before the Thanksgiving date (and the big competition)......i therefore conclude that the film should perform better initially than previous Bonds.

Basically QOS will have the main film market place to itself for 2 weeks worldwide to gain huge grosses, before peoples attention is drawn to other blockbusters...........this should ensure QOS willl at least pay off its negative costs, i.e budget and marketing costs.!!!

AB

[The Sweeney]

Kris................well done

I follow the business side of films..................and i think your predictions for QOS are very realistic.

I do think though that the US opening gross will be higher, say between $45-55 mil

I just took the adjusted figures for CR and made the US gross slightly lower and the British and worlwide grosses slightly higher. The UK was by far CR's strongest market, whereas it slightly underperformed in the US compared to DAD. I just have a feeling that the trend may continue and QOS may do less business than CR in the States.

Didn't CR perform better in the US though with its DVD release? I could be wrong, but thought that was the case. If so, it would suggest QOS will do better at the BO than CR did in the US.

[English Agent]

Kris................well done

I follow the business side of films..................and i think your predictions for QOS are very realistic.

I do think though that the US opening gross will be higher, say between $45-55 mil

I just took the adjusted figures for CR and made the US gross slightly lower and the British and worlwide grosses slightly higher. The UK was by far CR's strongest market, whereas it slightly underperformed in the US compared to DAD. I just have a feeling that the trend may continue and QOS may do less business than CR in the States.

Didn't CR perform better in the US though with its DVD release? I could be wrong, but thought that was the case. If so, it would suggest QOS will do better at the BO than CR did in the US.

You could be right 'Sweeney'

What some people don't realise is that a huge amount of the budget is paid off by companies paying fortunes for having their products shown on screen.

Add to that worldwide DVD sales of the film, and the costs paid by TV stations to show the film..............then when added to the films cinematical release then a film can be very profitable.

AB

[Kristatos]

What some people don't realise is that a huge amount of the budget is paid off by companies paying fortunes for having their products shown on screen.

Add to that worldwide DVD sales of the film, and the costs paid by TV stations to show the film..............then when added to the films cinematical release then a film can be very profitable.

AB

Tru dat. Batman (1988) managed to make back eight times its budget through merchandising alone before the film had ever seen the inside of a cinema.

[stockslivevan]

The Blu-Ray sales for Casino Royale is one of the contributing aspects to helping Blu-Ray win the format war against HD DVD. For awhile it was the highest selling BR disc until Spider-Man 3 was released.

I call that quite a success.

[carl stromberg]

Star Trek has been pushed back so that's at least one big film out the way. Not that I have any idea how popular or not a rebooted Star Trek film will turn out to be.

[stockslivevan]

Star Trek has been pushed back so that's at least one big film out the way. Not that I have any idea how popular or not a rebooted Star Trek film will turn out to be.

Was Star Trek a real threat though? I mean it features a bunch of kids playing iconic roles like Captain Kirk. If the TNG crew only made $40 million on their last film against a Bond film, how can this new Trek film make the same?

[bjmdds]

I personally do not think a Star Trek prequel will fly.

[Mazer Rackham]

The Blu-Ray sales for Casino Royale is one of the contributing aspects to helping Blu-Ray win the format war against HD DVD. For awhile it was the highest selling BR disc until Spider-Man 3 was released.

I call that quite a success.

Wrong , sorry, just wrong
CR BR had nothing to do with BR begin where it is today. Lets give credit where credit is due, Payola is responsible for BR's victory. Nothing less nothing more, it certainly wasn't left up to consumers. Not after it was all too apparent they didn't care either way.

If what you say were true then HD would be king because of Transformers and the Bourne Ultimatum. To this day no next gen format has passed Transformers' record. Bourne Ultimatum out sold CR in the first 2 weeks.

CR didn't make BR, didn't hurt BR either. No one movie has ever in the history of home movies made a format. To believe other wise is to be a fool or a tool, your choice. You can be uninformed and foolishly, read innocently, believe the hype. Or you can choose to be a tool used for BS & spin.

P.S. Spidy 3 BR sales were a huge disappointment. Those numbers were desperately combined with the trilogy sales to beat CR. 3 million players and they couldn't sell 130,000 movies. For those who don't know that is the kind of numbers we are talking about here. Not millions, hundreds of thousands makes for a blockbuster seller in the next gen formats. More next gen movies were given away by the companies involved than were bought.

[Mazer Rackham]

Just for fun, predict the box office for QOS. The closest to the actual result wins...I dunno, a round of applause from Mr. Smiley here

My prediction:

US opening weekend - $40 million
US Total gross - $170 million
UK total gross - $105 million*
Worldwide gross - $650 million

* = I gave the figure in US dollars because that's how it will be presented on Box Office Mojo, which is where I get my box office information from.

so you actually think it will do worse in the USA than CR? If so I think you are right.
I reckon it'll do worse overall, 400-500 million, 550 if they get real lucky. We are only 100 million different in our guesses.

IMO It will preform worse partly because the title is s**t, partly because they will be facing tougher completion and economy. Also the newness is gone.
Maybe with the economy in the crapper QSOL can make more than CR do to runaway inflation.

[Kristatos]

Was Star Trek a real threat though? I mean it features a bunch of kids playing iconic roles like Captain Kirk. If the TNG crew only made $40 million on their last film against a Bond film, how can this new Trek film make the same?

Well, it features at least one A-list star in Matt Damon (edit - oops, not it doesn't. Wasn't he cast as Kirk at one point?), so I think it has the potential to appeal beyond the Trekkie audience, something that was increasingly untrue of the "real" film franchise.

[stockslivevan]

The Blu-Ray sales for Casino Royale is one of the contributing aspects to helping Blu-Ray win the format war against HD DVD. For awhile it was the highest selling BR disc until Spider-Man 3 was released.

Wrong , sorry, just wrong
CR BR had nothing to do with BR begin where it is today.

You know I was actually putting CR as a contribution, not as the sole reason for BR's success. I am highly aware there were other big fish.

I wasn't aware of the combination of Spidy numbers though.

[stockslivevan]

Was Star Trek a real threat though? I mean it features a bunch of kids playing iconic roles like Captain Kirk. If the TNG crew only made $40 million on their last film against a Bond film, how can this new Trek film make the same?

Well, it features at least one A-list star in Matt Damon (edit - oops, not it doesn't. Wasn't he cast as Kirk at one point?), so I think it has the potential to appeal beyond the Trekkie audience, something that was increasingly untrue of the "real" film franchise.

Damon was never approached by anyone to play Kirk, I don't know why the rumor even flew but I thought he would have been a bad choice.