US Presidential Election 2016

[bjmdds]

Donald Trump expanded his lead over Hillary Clinton in a four-way race to two points, 42%-40%, in day 4 of the IBD/TIPP presidential tracking poll, with Trump moving past his Democratic rival in a head-to-head match-up for the first time.

Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson fell 1 point to 7%, while Green Party Jill Stein held at 4%. In the first three days of the tracking poll, Trump held a 1-point lead in a four-way race. Unrounded, Trump leads 42.1% to 39.7% – a 2.4-point edge – with Johnson at 7.3% and Stein at 3.6%.

Meanwhile, in a 2-way race, Trump leads Clinton by a half-point -- 42.2% to 41.7%. Previously, Clinton had led by two or three points in a 2-way race vs. Trump.

By either measure, the latest IBD/TIPP poll provides further evidence that the final presidential debate on Wednesday did not hurt the Republican nominee, despite media attention on his refusal to state flatly that he would accept the election results.

The tracking poll is a six-day moving average, which means that day-to-day swings have little impact.

The national poll of 791 likely voters has a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points. Trump leads 44%-28% among independents, increasing from prior days. Trump dominates among rural voters (57%-27%),while Clinton is well ahead among urban voters (53%-29%) and split in the suburbs (Clinton 41%-39%).

[bjmdds]

A SUNY professor continues to project Donald Trump as the likely winner of this year's election and he's critiquing polls that predict the opposite in a new opinion piece.

Helmut Norpoth has been predicting a Trump victory since early this year. His model currently projects a win for the Republican with a certainty of 87 to 99 percent.

Norpoth is a professor at Stony Brook University on Long Island.

That flies in the face of just about every other major election forecast out there, which mostly give an edge to Democrat Hillary Clinton, notes the Daily Mail.

Norpoth wrote in The Hill that although the race looks decided, current polling methods are "bunk."

The projections for Clinton are all based on opinion polls, which are flawed because they don't reflect actions, Norpoth wrote. They're about what voters think of Clinton or Trump, but they can't tell us exactly how voters will act on those thoughts.

"It is ingrained in all of us that voting is civic duty," he says. "So nearly all of us say, oh yes, I'll vote, and then many will not follow through."

Instead of opinion polling, Norpoth relies on statistics from candidates' performances in party primaries and patterns in the electoral cycle to forecast results. The model correctly "predicted the victor in every presidential election since 1996, according to the Daily Mail."

[carl stromberg]

I'm not sure who I would choose. Donald is a bit crazy. Hillary Clinton is famous for being crooked! Libertarians are a bit mad wanting virtually no government at all, and Greens say some good thing but lots of crazy things.

[Omega]

Write in Craig?


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[bjmdds]

I'm not sure who I would choose. Donald is a bit crazy. Hillary Clinton is famous for being crooked! Libertarians are a bit mad wanting virtually no government at all, and Greens say some good thing but lots of crazy things.

Vote Trump Supreme court cannot be ruled by Hillary Obamacare MUST be destroyed. Trump is nothing great as a person BUT issues matter and national security

[Omega]

Listening to republicans try to burry the wiki leaks .
What pisses me off is this was ok when it was military secrets that could get Soldiers killed. When it the corruption of media and politicians it's an no go zone.

If Assange is a live he's probably being water boarded for exposing Hillary as corporate shill.

I get the hacks we're illegal, they want us to believe it was Russians, and I'd bet they made this a national security issue to use all the force the nation could muster to get Assange.
Republicans are out there try to play nice because it could happen to them, believe me when it does its page one news no hiding it.
But the idea we can look at the leaks because it is impolite is like the pre WWI rules for spying because l a gentleman does not open letters addressed to others".

If we had a transparent system when Clinton and could be subpoena and forced to produce these records, and the laws we live under were implemented on them I'd agree we might ignore the leaks. Except none of that will ever happen, these people deleted and change classification after the fact to avoid producing it. The details of what the FBI did to give her a pass is sickening. The press involved with the campaigns is sickening. The wall street influence in our system is sickening.
And we need to pretend we did see the evidence ?
If these people were going to be stopped by the system then I agree but the system is rigged to keep them in power and the rest of us poor.


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[bjmdds]

The daily Investor’s Business Daily tracking poll, which predicted the outcome of the 2004, 2008 and 2012 elections more closely than rival surveys, gave Trump a 2-point advantage when Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein are thrown into the mix. The same poll gave Trump a 1-point edge in a head-to-head contest. For the week, the IBD poll also put Trump a point ahead. As of Sunday, the candidates were separated by just 0.3 point, with Trump retaining the edge. The poll results include responses from 783 likely voters, with a weighted partisan breakdown of 282 Democrats, 226 Republicans, and 259 Independents. The results reflect the rolling average of six days' worth of polling. The IBD/TIPP tracking poll has been billed as the most accurate presidential election tracking poll. The Los Angeles Times/University of Southern California daily tracking poll has the candidates tied at 44 percent apiece for the week.

[Omega]

What I wonder about the national pol with her ahead, what size the sample is from states like California


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[bjmdds]

The IBD/TIPP survey, which includes 791 likely voters and carries a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points, was the most accurate predictor of the final results in the last three presidential elections — calling the outcomes "within 0.9" percent of the actual tally in 2004, 2008, and 2012.

[bjmdds]

What I wonder about the national pol with her ahead, what size the sample is from states like California


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Big O, the polls are all FAKE and the media outlets are colluding to drive a false narrative From here on in, ONLY the IBD poll should be watched. It even has more Democrats and Independents than Republicans in their survey. California is used 14% in ALL of these bogus surveys they said last month, so with 50 states plus D.C., they are overweighted deliberately being liberal.

[Omega]

Clinton's eye problem is back.
Weird thing is since September 11th she spent almost 20 days "preparing for the debates", I believe she was resting , like she said no More naps. If trumps such a joke why did she have to rest up for so long to face him, what happens when she has to face e a problem as president any time day or night?
I think she is still very sick, if she keeps up the grind daily I think she fail in some public way before November


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[bjmdds]

With the presidential election set to enter its final two weeks, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump find themselves in a near dead heat at 41% each in a four-way race, the latest IBD/TIPP presidential tracking poll shows.

Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson edged up to 8% from 7%, while the Green Party's Jill Stein rebounded to 4% from 3%.

Without rounding, Trump stands at 41.1%, 0.1 percentage point behind Clinton's 41.2%. Johnson stands at 7.7%, unrounded, while Stein is at 3.7%.

In a two-way faceoff without the other two candidates excluded, Trump and Clinton are knotted at 42%. On the unrounded data, Trump slightly edges Clinton, 42.3% to 42%.

The poll of 815 likely voters has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.6 percentage points. It had a weighted response of 291 Democrats, 235 Republicans and 271 people who called themselves either "independents" or "other."

Unlike many other polls, the IBD/TIPP Poll continues to show a tightening race, as the candidates and their surrogates slug it out in public in the waning days until the Nov. 8 polling date.

[bjmdds]

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi has been a vocal backer of President Obama’s (ultimately successful) plan to import a minimum of 10,000 Syrian refugees by the end of the fiscal year, at one point accusing Republicans of “slamming the door on mothers and children.” But with just days remaining in the 2016 Fiscal Year, Pelosi’s own district has yet to resettle a single Syrian refugee.

[bjmdds]

Concern is growing over revelations that voting machines in a significant number of states could be linked to a company tied directly to billionaire leftist George Soros and his personal quest to create a nationless, borderless global state.

The U.K.-based Smartmatic company posted a flow-chart on its website that it had provided voting machines for 16 states, including important battleground states like Florida and Arizona. Smartmatic Chairman Mark Malloch-Brown is a former U.N. official and sits on the board of Soros’ Open Society Foundations. Since the story first broke, the flow-chart has disappeared from Smartmatic’s website, raising further questions about the real status of the Soros-tied voting equipment and whether it is truly being deployed in U.S. elections.

[bjmdds]

Voters across Texas have witnessed their votes switch from "straight Republican" to Democrat on compromised voting machines.

[Omega]

That why straight electronic ballots can alway be compromised.
Even the old readers of not programmed right easily read like they are still in primary mode

Most famous case I know of I'd from the 2000 election and voting machines in the community right above ABQ were set for primary and read each ballot like it was a primary.
I think it wasn't on purpose but the had to recount it twice, exactly why paper ballots should stay.
If it's all digital there no way to tell if they are altered


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[Omega]

Oh the other thing is voter fraud on the res these Indians were going to other areas to vote the got caught because nobody recognized them, also the car plates were for another state. When they were questioned they ran, far as I know never caught. But these jokes I'm sure were paid by the political machine to vote, vote early and often.


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[bjmdds]

We all knew the corrupt media polls were BS.
Now thanks to Wikileaks we know our assumptions were correct.
The media was working with Hillary Clinton to release bogus weighted polls that show Hillary ahead of Trump.

Zero Hedge reported:

For all of you out there who still aren’t convinced that the polls are “adjusted”, we present to you the following Podesta email, leaked earlier today, that conveniently spells out, in detail, exactly how to “manufacture” the desired data. The email starts out with a request for recommendations on “oversamples for polling” in order to “maximize what we get out of our media polling.”

I also want to get your Atlas folks to recommend oversamples for our polling before we start in February. By market, regions, etc. I want to get this all compiled into one set of recommendations so we can maximize what we get out of our media polling.

[bjmdds]

NBC Meet the Press host Chuck Todd has a wife who’s active in Democratic Party strategic communications, and sometimes donates to Democrats. In 2012, Kristian Denny Todd contributed $2,500 to Sen. Tim Kaine. Todd never felt any need to disclose this during his three recent Kaine interviews on NBC (August 7, September 18, and October 23).

But Maverick Mail & Strategies, the firm Mrs. Todd founded in 2007 with fellow James Webb aides Steve Jarding and Jessica Vanden Berg, did heavy lifting for openly socialist Bernie Sanders for President this year. Open Secrets shows a bill for $1.992 million made in ten payments to Maverick from January to April. Todd has never disclosed this business relationship in 11 Sanders interviews this year. (If the work began in 2015 before the payments, Todd failed to disclose any tie in six Sanders interviews in the second half of 2015). We didn't even count any Todd interviews with Sanders on MSNBC.

[Omega]

I think chuck Todd was already caught taking instruction from the democrats during the primary against sanders


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